Dear Friends,
I hope you and your families are continuing to stay well. 5 new properties came on the market this week and they are included below. I want to also introduce you to the 5 Coming Soon properties. Coming Soons give you a preview of what properties will be available soon; many of these are not available to be seen on the public real estate sites. There are also 2 Back on the Market homes – these are homes that were previously in contract/pending and for some reason are available again.
As you may know, the State of California and Alameda County has extended our SIP order until the end of May. Residential Real Estate Sales continue to be deemed an essential service. Vacant properties can be shown in person (with masks and observing social distancing), many occupied properties have virtual tours we can view. These procedures may change – I’ll keep you posted on the ever changing landscape of the home sales industry.
If you are interested in finding out more information about how our business is conducted in a safe manner or if you are curious about any of these homes let me know.
Stay well,
Sophia
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FAQs
What are Interest Rates this Week?
Rates continue to be low: 3.25% on 30 Year Conventional Loan with 20% down.
What’s on the market?
How has the Market Activity been this week compared to this same week last year?
This week in Alameda, 4 properties have Sold (1 under list price, 3 above list price). This same time last year, 14 properties Sold (2 below list price, 4 at list price and 8 sold above the list price).
Lender Perspective
My good friend and experienced lender, Mic Ascarrunz of PNC Mortgage, weighs in on how things have been going in the lending world.
www.pncmortgage.com/cmicahascarrunz
1) What has the home purchase and refinance volume been like for you since the SIP order?
Refinance transactions were on the rise(three times as many as normal), just prior to the SIP order, due to the drop in interest rates. Since the SIP order, refinance transactions are still one and a half times what is normal. In regards to purchase transactions, those are still moving strong. I had two buyers go into contract over the last 7 days, closed two transactions last month, one this month, four pending close for May, and five more actively looking.
2) How are rates and do you anticipate large fluctuations soon?
Rates are at the lowest that I have had in my 16 year career. But there is still room to drop a bit more. Due to lender capacity issues, rates are being held to mitigate the influx of new applications.
3) If someone called you today ask you if it was the right time to buy, what advice would you give him/her? What are some things to consider?
Are you experiencing any delays in the process? It is “never” a bad time to buy. Buyers need to consider where they are financially and if “now” is the best time for them. Do they have a large enough down-payment to qualify or keep their payment within their comfort range. Do they have ample reserve assets to qualify and/or give them room to breathe, if necessary. What is motivating them to purchase a home in the first place. Currently, the only delay that I am having, is with regards to the appraisal process. Most people do not know that appraisers do not work for the bank that is providing their financing. Lenders use third party vendors that reach out to local appraisers who then perform the inspection. Due to the heavy increase in refinance applications and COVID, the appraisal process has doubled in some markets. Where before, I was able to have an appraisal completed in 5 – 7 days. That has now become 7 – 15 days on average, with quotes of up to 21 days in some markets. Our internal processes are business as usual and if not for the appraisal process, we would still be able to close a purchase in 15 days.
4) Are you seeing still seeing refinance applications coming in? Would you recommend homeowners to consider refinancing now?
Yes and yes. If a client can drop their interest rate by at least .250% or drop their payments by at least $125.00 per month, then it makes sense to refinance. The reason behind these numbers is based on recouping closing costs(if applicable) with 24 months or less. But some clients are holding out for too much in my personal opinion and should take “the bird in the hand”. For instance, I have one client that has an interest rate of 4.125% and I am able to give them 3.375% now. They are holding out for 3.000%(which may never happen), even though the new payment would save them over $200.00 per month.
Dear Friends,
I hope you and your families are continuing to stay well. 5 new properties came on the market this week and they are included below.
As you may know, the State of California and Alameda County have deemed Realtor services as Essential. We are allowed to show only vacant homes in-person when we are not able to do it virtually. For owner occupied homes, we have to rely on photos/videos provided by the Seller.
If you are interested in finding out more information about how our business is conducted in a safe manner or if you are curious about these homes or the many properties on the “off-market” let me know.
Stay well,
Sophia
Condo, Townhouse & Single Family Properties (4/22/20)
Multi-Family / Income Properties (4/22/20)
FAQs
Have you closed any transactions during SIP?
Yes! I am excited to report that after 47 days and many hours of negotiating, I just helped a wonderful family purchase their first home. It was unlike any transaction I have ever had. We experienced delays from inspectors/appraisers and we faced so many unknowns. This Tuesday, I was armed with my face mask, wipes and a signed release just to conduct the final walk through (vacant house and all done from a distance). The buyers are thrilled to be moving out of their apartment into a larger home with a massive yard. A few things to note about this transaction: the appraisal came in at purchase price, the seller was open to a price reduction, we had inspection and loan contingencies in place. Feel free to reach out to me if you want more details about this unique transaction.
Interest Rates this Week
3.25% on 30 Year Conventional Loan with 20% down.
What’s on the market?
Market Activity
This week in Alameda, 7 properties have Sold (2 at list price and 5 sold for above the list price). This same time last year, 14 properties Sold (2 below list price, 1 at list price and 11 sold above the list price)
What will happen to home prices/housing market in the short and long term?
I agree with my friend Jay Voorhees from JVM lending that we will likely see a decrease in prices in the short term as more buyers take a break from the market due to job changes and uncertainty. Low inventory and low rates are doing their parts to keep the prices fairly stable. Buyers who are experiencing job stability are staying in the market and taking advantage of the reduced competition and increased price flexibility.
From Jay: “If you ask the internet about “COVID-19’s effect on real estate prices,” dozens of articles surface, but all are just a bunch of hedged predictions.
This is b/c nobody has a clue what will happen to home prices. There are way too many unknowns, particularly with the FED influencing the economy so much and with so much confusion about when the economy will reopen.
Here are some factors that push prices down: (1) uncertainty and fear that keeps buyers from entering the market; (2) unemployment that keeps buyers out of the market altogether; and (3) stock market and asset declines that have zapped liquidity and down payment funds.
Here are some factors that keep prices up: (1) less inventory, as many sellers are staying out of the market; (2) lower rates, as buyers can now qualify for more; and (3) supply and demand, as household formations will continue to outpace inventory growth.
The above headline links to a Market Watch column from yesterday. While the number of transactions will likely decrease, nobody knows what the effect on prices will be.
But, the column does suggest that the effect will not be significant and not long-lasting if we do see an effect.
In this CNBC interview, Quicken Loans CEO, Jay Farner, predicts a 10% decline in prices.
And Barry Habib of the MBS Highway is predicting a correction too but he thinks the market will definitely bounce back b/c of the demographic trends I have alluded to many times in previous blogs (lots of millennials hitting homebuying age).
So yes, I too think we will see a temporary correction in the portion of the housing market associated with conforming loans, and a longer term correction in the jumbo market – where rates are much higher and financing is harder to come by.
But, I side with Barry Habib and Quicken’s CEO in believing that the market will bounce back and then some b/c of lower rates, strong demand b/c of new household formations, and continued inventory shortages.”
As always, if there is anything I can do to be of service let me know.
Be well,
Sophia
Dear Friends,
I hope you and your families are continuing to stay well. 7 new properties came on the market this week and they are included below. We are now seeing properties being priced closer to seller expectations.
As you may know, the State of California and Alameda County have deemed Realtor services as Essential. We are allowed to show only vacant homes in-person when we are not able to do it virtually. For owner occupied homes, we have to rely on photos/videos provided by the Seller.
If you are interested in finding out more information about how our business is conducted in a safe manner or if you are curious about these homes or the many properties on the “off-market” let me know.
Stay well,
Sophia
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955 Shorepoint Ct Unit 315 | Condo | $399,000 | 1 Bed 1.5 Bath | 39 Days on Market
325 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 212 | Condo | $425,000 | 2 Bed 1 Bath | 1 Day on Market
1806 Main Street | Condo | $439,950 | 1 Bed 1 Bath | 13 Days on Market
955 Shorepoint Ct Unit 212 | Condo | $459,000 | 1 Bed 1 Bath | 30 Days on Market
325 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 316 | Condo | $499,000 | 2 Bed 1 Bath | 36 Days on Market
325 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 205 | Condo | $539,000 | 2 Bed 1.5 Bath| 41 Days on Market
950 Shorepoint Ct Unit 308 | Condo | $598,000 | 2 Bed 2 Bath | 56 Days on Market
2137 Otis Dr Unit 308 | Condo | $620,000 | 2 Bed 2 Bath | 83 Days on Market
101 Holly Oak Lane | Townhouse| $725,000 | 2 Bed 2.5 Bath | 6 Days on Market
2030 Buena Vista | Single Family | $725,000 | 2 Bed 1 Bath | 39 Days on Market
2101 Shoreline Dr Unit 485 | Condo | $765,000 | 2 Bed 2.5 Bath | 14 Days on Market
814 Ironwood Road | Townhouse | $780,000 | 2 Bed 2.5 Bath | 51 Days on Market
933 Shoreline Dr Unit 103 | Condo | $785,000 | 2 Bed 2 Bath | 1 Day on Market
1519 Saint Charles Street | Single Family | $825,000 | 2 Bed 2 Bath | 35 Days on Market
1810 Entrance Rd | Condo | $850,000 | 2 Bed 2.5 Bath | 28 Days on Market
1314 Crown Dr | Townhouse | $879,000 | 3 Bed 2.5 Bath | 6 Days on Market
1847 Nason St | Single Family | $899,000 | 3 Bed 2 Bath | 4 Days on Market
755 Haight Ave | Single Family | $980,000 | 3 Bed 2 Bath | 7 Days on Market
802 Oak St | Single Family | $995,000 | 3 Bed 2.5 Bath | 36 Days on Market
2143 Main Street Unit 103 | Condo | $1,060,000 | 3 Bed 3.5 Bath | 12 Days on Market
1435 Eastshore Dr | Single Family | $1,095,000 | 3 Bed 2 Bath | 11 Days on Market
721 Baywood Rd | Townhouse | $1,095,000 | 4 Bed 2.5 Bath | 1 Days on Market
2196 Starling Lane Unit 208 | Condo| $1,125,000 | 3 Bed 3 Bath | 12 Days on Market
2732 Bette St | Single Family | $1,425,000 | 4 Bed 3.5 Bath | 9 Days on Market
1120 Morton Street | Single Family | $2,195,000 | 5 Bed 3 Bath | 13 Days on Market
1421 San Antonio | Single Family | $2,690,000 | 6 Bed 3 Bath | 51 Days on Market
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2520 Clement Avenue | Duplex| $1,100,000 | 254 Days on Market
2171 San Antonio Ave | Triplex| $1,250,000 | 11 Days on Market
820 Island Dr | Duplex| $1,388,000 | 13 Days on Market
811 Buena Vista Avenue | Fourplex| $1,600,000 | 101 Days on Market
2305 San Jose Ave | 2 Houses – 1 Lot (4 Units)| $1,688,000 | 13 Days on Market
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FAQs
How are mortgage rates?
This week, rates for a 30 year fixed Conventional loan with 20% down were around 3.25%.
What’s on the market today in Alameda?
5 new listings (on the market under 7 days)
19 Active listings (on the market for 7+ days)
- 5 properties have been on the market for 7-14 days
- 4 properties have been on the market for 20-30 days
- 5 properties have been on the market for 31-40 days
- 5 properties have been on the market for more than 40 days
How do things compare to last year?
As we compare things to how they were this time last year, the sharpest contrast is the number of properties sold. 7 properties that closed escrow (6 for over list price and just 1 for under list price). During this same week last year, 12 properties closed in Alameda (8 over list price, 2 at list price and 2 under the list price).
What do you think will happen to housing market in the next few months?
My friend Jay Voorhees, of JVM lending, is someone I trust when it comes to forecasting. Here’s what he anticipates will happen. Points #1 and #2 are happening now. #3 and #4 are his predictions for when things move towards normal.
- Flexible Sellers: Sellers who need to sell are suddenly much more flexible, so it seems that there are deals to be had for qualified buyers.
- Low Conforming Rates: Conforming and FHA interest rates are at all-time record lows so it is a great time to lock in a super low rate.
- Demographics: I blog about the coming “boom” in housing relatively often. This is b/c the demographics will not change no matter what happens to our economy. The number of household formations will vastly exceed the number of new homes coming on the market, so prices will have to rise at some point b/c demand will significantly exceed supply.
- Inflation: We have not seen inflation for years and will not for several months. But, as Rich Karlgaard (from Forbes) pointed out in this recent column, when the Fed creates $4 trillion of new money out of thin air (like they just did), inflation seems all but inevitable at some point. And one of the best inflation hedges around is residential real estate.
Jay’s thoughts and projections are interesting. The shift that has started in the housing market will continue to change the landscape of buying and selling. How and when we will rebound is something still too soon to tell.
Friends, have a great week. To those celebrating Passover or Easter, have a wonderful holiday!
Sophia
Dear Friends,
With the Shelter in Place order, Realtors are understandably prohibited from holding Open Houses and Brokers Tours. I will endeavor to keep you updated on what’s on the market each week. Let’s continue to observe how the housing market reacts to the effects of the COVID-19 crisis.
The health and well-being of my community is my highest priority. Please stay well, stay safe and stay home.
~Sophia
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FAQs
How much market activity has there been in the last 2 weeks?
There has definitely been a slow down of new properties to hit the market, but many of these properties are showing up on the “off market”. If you are interested in know about these, please respond to this message. Some sellers are making available videos that will allow me to show these to you virtually.
Market Activity 3/15/2020-4/3/2020 in Alameda
- 13 new listings
- 1 Back on the Market
- 13 Properties went Pending
- 15 Properties Sold
- 3 Withdrawn
- 5 Cancelled
Compared with this same time last year, the activity is definitely less this year. For example, this time last year there were 25 Properties Sold between 3/15/19-4/3/19 vs. 15 Properties Sold this year.
How are prices holding up since the SIP order?
While some properties are selling at or above seller expectations, others are seeing 10-15% less than they expected.
What are mortgage servicers doing to help those who are experiencing hardship at this time?
Companies are offering Forebearance programs. I advise calling your mortgage servicer to find out the details and possible penalties. Here’s a great reference I got from a lender friend:
- Who Qualifies for Forbearances? Anyone suffering financial hardship b/c of the COVID-19 crisis. Some servicers will take the borrower’s word but many will request “proof” of some sort. Borrowers who are not in financial peril should be careful about claiming they are, as they risk fraud charges.
- How Do I Obtain a Forbearance? Borrowers need to contact their servicer and apply for it. They should not simply stop making payments.
- Do I Have to Pay Back Missed Payments? Yes – without a doubt. Some servicers will want all of the missed payments repaid as soon as the forbearance ends; some will want to restructure entire loans; and some will want to set up repayment over a period of months. Servicers will most likely try to work out the repayment system when borrowers apply for forbearances.
- Does It Matter What Type of Mortgage I Have? Yes. Forbearances will be easier to obtain for conforming (Fannie/Freddie), FHA and VA loans. Jumbo and non-QM borrowers, however, will have a more difficult time obtaining forbearances b/c the government does not have as much influence over those channels.
How Will a Forbearance Affect My Credit? If borrowers obtain a formal approval for a forbearance, it should not affect their credit. If borrowers just stop making payments, however, without getting an approval from their servicer, it will likely impact their credit – severely. There is a caveat here too: while credit reports will not show late payments when borrowers get their forbearances approved, future lenders will be able to see if a borrower obtained a forbearance in many cases, and that could affect credit decisions. This is something we saw with loan modifications after the 2008 crisis.
- Should I Go Through With My Purchase or Refinance If I Am Likely to Seek a Forbearance? Absolutely not. Not only will it be extremely difficult for borrowers to obtain a formal forbearance approval for a recently funded loan, missing payments on newly funded loans put the originating lender in extreme financial peril.
Allowable Realtor Duties
In the last 2 weeks, allowable Realtors’ duties have changed. We have now been deemed (as of 3/31/20) an essential service however many restrictions still thankfully apply.
- No Open Houses, No Broker Tours
- If at all possible, showings should be done Virtually.
- If a virtual showing is not feasible, entrance into a property may be made under the following conditions: by appointment with no more than two visitors at a time residing within the same household or living unit and one individual showing the unit (except that in-person visits are not allowed when the occupant is still residing in the residence). This has been defined by the Counties as allowing entrance into the property only if it is vacant.
The health and safety of my community is my highest priority. My advice to both buyers and sellers right now is to wait, if at all possible. Because showings are still mostly virtual, sellers will not be able to fully market their homes. For buyers, there are many delays to be expected for transactions while inspectors, appraisers and lenders have less bandwidth and availability. If the home is occupied by either seller or tenant, in-person showings are still prohibited.
With this in mind, I know that there are buyers and sellers, even now, who still need to move forward with their individual real estate needs. Let’s talk if you find yourself in this category.
As always, if there is anything I can do to be of service let me know.
Be well,
Sophia
